Job Estimates are produced for the area to indicate how employment is likely to change through time. They are based on:
Dounreay Decommissioning: (Life Time Plan)
Balance of Jobs: assumptions, intelligence and information from current businesses and their potential for growth
CNSRP Major Projects and Opportunities: predictions based on the factors set out in Identification, Selection and Prioritisation
A second set of data is then created to take account of the likelihood that these jobs will materialise. The process is called “Go/Get”.
How likely is it that the activity will go ahead?
Assuming it goes ahead (Go) how likely is it that the activity will come to Caithness or North Sutherland?
Multiplying the two figures together will produce the adjusted or weighted jobs number, ie: if the likelihood the project will proceed is 50% and the target jobs number is 100, and there are 3 areas that might get the work, the Go/Get number is:
0.5 x 100 x 0.33 = 17 jobs.
This produces a result with a fair amount of pessimism in it and cannot be taken literally. It does, however, give an indication of how successful the Major Project Opportunities are likely to be.
Job Numbers fall in one of three categories:
Those that relate directly to the operation of the facility, activity, infrastructure or company (and associated partners), including provision of services and any others that depend on the operational facility or infrastructure. These are assessed by the Major Project owner.
Relating to the supply chain associated with direct impacts. These are assessed by the Major Project owner and/or the CNSRP Programme Manager.
Other than direct and indirect impacts, the totality of jobs created by businesses growing and inward investment will produce Induced job impacts. These are largely associated with services, infrastructure or facilities on the wider Caithness and North Sutherland economy associated with, for instance, household expenditures. Examples of these would be council services, plumbers, high street shops, etc. One business does not account for these impacts, but the more successful the economy, the more of these services are required. These numbers will be assessed by the CNSRP Programme Manager and collated under “Balance of Jobs”.
The figures are cross referenced to market sectors where 3 yearly targets have been set.
This includes the local supply chain for Dounreay and Vulcan.
This includes businesses such as the BT call centre, the AoN pensions office, etc.
This includes hotels and restaurants and businesses directly targeting tourism from people visiting the area by road, air and also the cruise ship market.
This includes food manufacturing (eg. Reids of Caithness) and fishing.